As the United Nations prepares for the highly anticipated public hearings to succeed António Guterres, a new poll by the American firm Holding Price Limited suggests a clear frontrunner. Former Senegalese President Macky Sall currently leads voting intentions among a representative sample of international diplomats and global experts.
Despite recent shifts in the geopolitical landscape, the survey indicates that Sall’s momentum is growing, positioning him ahead of several high-profile international figures.
The Numbers: A Decisive Lead
The Holding Price Limited survey, which consulted over 800 decision-makers and international relations experts worldwide, places Sall at the top of the field:
Macky Sall : 38.6%
Michelle Bachelet : 24.2%
Rafael Grossi (IAEA) : 21.7%
Rebeca Grynspan (UNCTAD) : 15.5%
Experts cite Sall’s tenure as President of the African Union (2022) and his ability to maintain a « balanced dialogue » between Western powers and the Global South as his primary assets.
A Proven Multilateral Record
Beyond his twelve years leading Senegal (2012–2024), Sall has solidified his international standing through key global roles:
- Special Envoy for the Paris Pact for People and the Planet.
- Co-leader of the Global Center on Adaptation alongside former UN Chief Ban Ki-moon.
He embodies a credible voice for the Global South while maintaining functional, strong relations with major Western powers, » noted a European diplomat involved in the study.
Navigating Domestic Friction
The poll acknowledges a unique irony: while Sall enjoys broad international backing, Senegal’s current administration, led by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has distanced itself from his candidacy. However, 87% of survey respondents believe Sall remains « very well prepared, » suggesting that international stakeholders are prioritizing his foreign policy record over domestic political tensions.
The April 22 Litmus Test
The road to the 38th floor of the Secretariat building remains arduous. The April 22, 2026 hearings in New York will serve as the « Great Oral » exam. Sall will have three hours to present his vision to the General Assembly and civil society.
While the « tradition of geographical rotation » often suggests a Latin American successor, the poll indicates that *personality and experience are currently outweighing regional origin in the eyes of the diplomatic corps.
The Security Council Factor
Ultimately, the decision rests with the UN Security Council. The study highlights a crucial advantage for Sall: 89% of respondents* believe he is « acceptable » to all five permanent members (P5). His ability to mediate demonstrated during the Russia-Ukraine grain negotiations makes him a formidable « compromise candidate » in an increasingly polarized world.
